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Answer to Question #37183 in Statistics and Probability for Bahaa Hussein

Question #37183
I need help to understand what is the statistically best way to calculate the total probability if I have the below scenario.
100 activities are scheduled with 50% probability of completion for the baseline activity duration.
We are one third through the project and 30 activities are complete.
For each of the completed activities the actual duration is projected on the baseline probability distribution to find out at what % probability the actual duration occurred.
the intent is to find the total probability of all the activities including the actual activities (ofcourse the probability for incomplete activities remain at 50% probability)
what is the best way to calculate the total probability.
The reason why we use all activities is so that the total calculated probability would be influenced more by the incomplete activities and less by actual activities at the beginning of the project and that influence is increased as the schedule progresses.
Any help is appreciated. Thank you.
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