what is the long and short run effecy if There is an increase in private domestic investment spending. and An increase in international oil prices.
For much of the period since the October 2000 World Economic Outlook was completed, oil prices have averaged $5 per barrel higher than assumed in that exercise. A sustained oil price increase of that size would imply a permanent transfer of about ¼ percent of GDP from global oil importers to oil exporters, relative to the WEO baseline, with additional transfers of income from oil consumers to oil producers within countries. Such a terms of trade shock would affect the global economy through supply and demand effects as well as via second-round effects on inflation, for example, through higher wage claims. This in turn would affect the extent to which central banks raise interest rates to offset inflationary pressures, and therefore the impact of the oil price increase on real activity. The impact on asset prices and financial markets would provide additional channels.