Question #4062

The advantage of a certain blood test is that 90% of the time it is positive for patients having a certain disease. Its diadvantage is that 25% of the time it is also positive in healthy people. In a certain location 30% of the people have the disease, and anybody with a positive blood test is given a drug that cures the disease. If 20% of the time the drug produces a characteristic rash, what is the probability that a person from this location who has the rash had the disease in the first place?

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