Question #17710

If five slips of paper are numbered 1-5 and placed in a hat for a random draw for five people, is there any advantage of what turn a person selects his number in hopes of drawing the # 1 slip?
Isn't there a belief that the earlier in the selection order one chooses, the more likely that person will get the # 1 slip due to the likelihood of that slip being previously selected?

Expert's answer

no because all slips are the same with probability 1/5

no because there is a formula of full probability if first get #1 your chances

disappear but if first get not #1 your probability to get #1 became higher

no because there is a formula of full probability if first get #1 your chances

disappear but if first get not #1 your probability to get #1 became higher

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